Afghanistan Qualification Scenario For Super 8 Explained

How Afghanistan can qualify for Super 8 [Source: AFP]

The T20 World Cup 2026 group stage has reached its business end as three teams (India, West Indies, and South Africa have qualified for the Super 8, and still five slots are left to be filled as teams are fighting hard to scrap past the gruelling group stage games. One of the side which is still in contention to reach the next round is Afghanistan.

The Afghans lost their opening two fixtures against New Zealand and South Africa, and the loss against the Proteas was heartbreaking as the Asian team surrendered in the Super Over and were pushed on the brink of elimination.

Does Afghanistan has a realistic chance to qualify for Super 8?

However, an emphatic win against the UAE has revived their campaign and has given the side a glimmer of hope in the quest to reach the Super 8 stage. Can Afghanistan realistically qualify for the next stage? Or is the dream too far away?

• For starters, South Africa has already qualified for the Super 8 stage with three wins out of three. The Proteas have been near perfect and have become the first team from the group to go through to the next stage.
• Now, the fight for the second place remains between New Zealand and Afghanistan, and despite beating the UAE, Afghanistan’s chances look slim, and the team needs a miracle in their last match to clinch the second place.
• Both the UAE and Canada are out of contention, and they cannot qualify for the Super 8 stage of the T20 World Cup.

Miracles Afghanistan need to qualify for Super 8

• The Asian side will play their last group stage match against Canada, and anything less than a win will see them exit the tournament. If Afghanistan defeats Canada, the side will have 4 points, the same as New Zealand, but here is the catch.
• The Kiwis have a net run-rate of +0.701, while the Afghans have a net run-rate of -0.215. The Rashid Khan-led side not only has to beat the Canadian team, but they have to win by a big margin to boost their chances of eclipsing New Zealand in the second place.
• However, even boosting their net run-rate might not be enough for the Afghans as the Kiwis will take on Canada in their last group stage contest, and a win there will guarantee them a place in the Super 8. Even a surprising loss might not favour the Afghans, as New Zealand will have to lose by a huge margin, which looks highly impossible.
• Afghanistan’s only hope is to thrash Canada by a huge margin, and hope that the Canadians can somehow help them by doing the impossible task of beating the Black Caps by a large margin.

Why missed chances against South Africa could come back to haunt Afghanistan

Despite losing against New Zealand, Afghanistan dominated the proceedings against South Africa and they had the Proteas in tight ropes. However, the team failed to seize the opportunity as the match was tied and the game went in the Super Over.

South Africa needed 7 off the last ball, and Tristan Stubbs hit a massive sixes to take the game to another Super Over, where the Afghans lost all their firepower and surrendered.

Had the Afghans held their nerves to beat South Africa, things would have been different and they might have had an easy chance to qualify for the Super 8.