T20 World Cup Super 8: How Afghanistan can still qualify despite South Africa heartbreak

How Afghanistan can qualify for Super 8 [Source: AFP]

Afghanistan was placed in a tricky T20 World Cup group alongside South Africa and New Zealand, and two games later, they are almost out of the tournament as the Afghans lost two consecutive matches, and have to win the remaining two contests to somehow stay alive in the race to reach the Super 8.

While the team was outplayed against the Black Caps a couple of days ago, the Afghans suffered a heartbreaking defeat against the South African side on Wednesday. Batting first, South Africa posted a challenging 187/6, and even they would have fancied their chances against Afghanistan.

However, a spirited performance from Rahmanullah Gurbaz almost took them to a famous victory. The star opener smashed a brilliant 84 off 42 balls, but he hardly got support from the other end as the Asian side failed to cross the final hurdle as the game went in the Super Over.

How Afghanistan can still qualify for T20 World Cup Super 8

The match witnessed not one, but two Super Overs as the Afghans suffered a narrow defeat, and it has put their Super 8 place in jeopardy. The team has two matches remaining, but will victories in those two matches guarantee a place in the next round?.

(Group D points table)

• All five teams have played at least one match in the T20 World Cup 2026 so far, and New Zealand is hands down the best team, winning two matches, but also maintaining a supremely high net run-rate of +1.919.
• Both New Zealand and South Africa have won two matches each and will play against each other in the group stage. The winner of that match will directly reach the Super 8, without depending on the other results.
• Whosoever loses in the South Africa vs New Zealand match will play their next match against one of the associate nations (UAE, Canada), and they would fancy their chances of winning that contest, and hence, the path to reach the next round for South Africa, and the Kiwis become easier.

Tricky Super 8 path for the Afghan side

• Afghanistan, on the other hand, has a tricky task ahead. They will play against the UAE, and Canada in the remaining two matches, and there is no other choice but to win that contest.
• Two wins out of two will take Afghanistan to 4 points, and at the same time, the team needs to win big to boost their net run-rate.
• The winner of the South Africa-New Zealand contest will go through to the Super 8, and in case the losing team also suffers a defeat in their next match against the associated nation, then the net run-rate will come into play to determine the second team that reaches the next round.
• Hence, Afghanistan’s best bet will be to win the remaining games by huge margins and hope that South Africa or New Zealand loses their next two matches, so that the net run-rate comes into play at the end of the group stage.

How realistic are Afghanistan's chances?

In reality, South Africa or New Zealand is not expected to lose their last match against the associate nation. From whatever matches that have taken place from this group, both Canada and the UAE don’t boast the firepower to trouble the two big boys.

Hence, even if the Afghans win their next two matches, expect South Africa and the Kiwis to still qualify for the Super 8 round.