How England Beating Pakistan Can Affect India's WTC Final Qualification

How England's win affect India's WTC final chances [Source: AFP]

A “poor” Pakistan side, as stated by Stuart Broad, was decimated by England in the second Test match at Lord’s as the hosts have taken an unassailable 2-0 lead in the series. With one match left, England have a chance to whitewash the Asian side, which could strengthen their position in the WTC points table.

The Joe Root-led side thrashed Pakistan to win the first Test by an innings and 103 runs, and if that was not enough, the hosts won the second Test by 194 runs, and that has given them a glimmer of hope when it comes to WTC finale qualification chances.

England's WTC final qualification scenario after Lord's Test win

In recent weeks, England have picked up momentum by winning back-to-back Test matches. However, a series loss against Australia and New Zealand has hampered their WTC final chances as the team currently languishes sixth in the WTC table.

(WTC table)

Apart from a 6-8 win-loss ratio, England’s biggest problem has been their slow over-rate, and it has docked them 14 points so far.

Their remaining matches include a solitary Test against Pakistan and away Test series against South Africa and Bangladesh. Currently, England’s PCT stands at 34.44, and even if they win all of their remaining Tests, without losing points for slow over rate, their PCT can only go up to 53.17, which is unlikely for them to seal a spot in the final.

However, the English side can still do India a favour if they somehow manage to beat South Africa away from home.

If England win all their matches, does it affect India's chances?

As mentioned, if England win their remaining six Tests, their PCT would be 53.17. Currently, India’s PCT stands at 51.52, with 5 wins, 4 losses, and 2 losses.

Also Read: WTC Table After England vs Pakistan 2nd Test, World Test Championship Points Table

The Asian side will have to play seven more Tests in the upcoming WTC cycle, with two Tests against New Zealand and five against Australia at home.

The team needs 62 more points from their seven remaining Tests to reach 60% PCT. That means they need at least five wins and a draw.

However, for India to qualify, they need other results to go in their favour, especially the England vs South Africa Test series. As of now, even India’s chances of qualifying for the WTC final look bleak, as in the last cycle, the two finalists, Australia and South Africa, had PCTs of 67.54 and 69.44, respectively.

If they win all seven, they'll end up with 70.37%, and only then can they have a marginal chance of reaching the final.

Hence, England beating Pakistan might not have any effect on India’s WTC final chances, but England winning their remaining Tests will certainly have an impact, as both South Africa and Bangladesh are ahead of India in the points tally, and England can be a party spoiler.

India's biggest hurdle to qualify for the WTC final

India will play five Tests at home against Australia, and while that series promises to produce riveting matches, India’s biggest hurdle will be to beat New Zealand in their backyard in November as the teams will play two Tests.

Since 2000, India have toured New Zealand for three different Test series, and they have suffered heavy defeats in three of them. The team lost against them in 2002, but under MS Dhoni, the side defeated the Kiwis in 2009.

In 2014 and 2020, New Zealand defeated India, as the Asian side will face a stern Test against the home side, who have already strengthened their position in the points tally.

Also Read: Nasser Hussain Asks England Players Not To Take Pakistan Seriously